About

I am 27 and work for a bulge bracket investment bank supporting Front Office derivatives. I have graduated from a top UK university.  This blog is about getting my ideas out and trying to do whatever I can to secure a trading position. I am eagerly seeking to be contributing towards the process of protecting and growing client financial assets, and the fiduciary responsibilities that are coupled with that.  My investment theme is seeking deeply under-valued opportunities and shorting financial instruments or stocks that appear deeply over-valued. I do not own any stocks but this blogs tracks what I would invest in real-time. I would invest in protection which would decrease performance by a couple of hundred basis points.

Generally I am cautiously bullish and have been since 2009. Overall I believe the economics are awful in most developed countries except Germany out of the major economies exc. EM.  The increased monetisation of debt in the US, awful supply-demand dynamics, stimulus-fuelled growth trajectory combined with a lot of near term issues like the debt ceilling are just some of the concerns. Fed intervention has created a rally in financial indices which are not supported by fundamentals but are likely to continue with an expansion of M2.  Obama had repeatedly blamed Bush for historic deficits and present financial woes but that rhetoric cannot continue indefinately; Obama does not understand the systemic risks that high debt ratios can have on economies, currencies and living standards.  GDP to debt ratios are flawed and mask the deeper problems within economies; they track the production of the economy however considerable amounts of what is classified as output has high import composition so therefore is not truly US output; these same composition and formulation errors also effect GDP growth figures.

Clearly Bernanke is motivated to de-value the dollar and inflate his way out of the US debt mountain. Whilst the US has not defaulted on its debt in the most literal sense, through inflation exported worldwide the value of dollar holdings and government treasuries have lost real value. Vaulations are not attractive because foreign central banks are part of the same problem perpetuating the bond market which will be in a long-term bubble perhaps in 15 years plus if the situation does not change or perhaps even sooner. What should not be suprising is that the Fed’s mandate is not strictly the oft-mentioned dichatomy of full employment and price stability; Bernanke’s WSJ piece justifying QE2 stated that he is looking to increase stock prices so that corporations and individuals feel richer, go out and invest and spend more boosting corporate and consumer confidence. Since that point stock prices have almost gone straight up in a linear fashion across almost all sectors; other asset classes have also risen in valuation.

Please contact me at: nhcap1@gmail.com for any potential job opportunities that you may have for me.

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